National Prevalence Projected Below 5% by 2035, But Older Adults Lag
Cigarette smoking in the United States is declining at a historically rapid pace, largely thanks to young adults abandoning the habit, according to new research from the University of California San Diego. The study projects that if current trends continue, the national smoking rate could fall below 5% by 2035, potentially signaling the end of the smoking epidemic within a generation.
Analyzing data from 1.77 million respondents to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (Tobacco Use Supplements), researchers documented a dramatic drop from nearly 57% of U.S. adults smoking in 1955 to around 12.5% in 2022. They anticipate this figure could halve again by 2035.
"The rapid decline in smoking among young adults is clear evidence that the smoking epidemic will come to an end in our lifetime," stated Matthew Stone, the study’s lead author.
The research highlighted significant regional shifts, with states that traditionally had high smoking rates, such as Kentucky and West Virginia, experiencing the most substantial declines since the 1990s. This progress aligns with observations that states leading in smoking reduction have subsequently seen drops in lung cancer mortality, typically after a 16-year lag.
However, the study also sounded a note of caution. Smoking cessation among adults over 50 has been considerably slower, particularly in areas where smoking was historically most prevalent. "The slower decline among older adults will mean that the high rates of smoking-related illnesses will take longer to decrease," Stone warned, referring to conditions like lung cancer and heart disease.
Furthermore, while celebrating the decline in cigarette use, senior author John Pierce pointed to a new concern: "Recent evidence suggests that the tobacco industry has successfully recruited a new generation of teenagers into e-cigarette use and nicotine addiction.” He emphasized the need for more research into the long-term impacts of this shift towards vaping among youth. Despite overall progress, disparities in smoking rates also persist across various demographic groups based on race, ethnicity, and education levels.
