The German Bundestag is preparing to approve a tax reform that will make nicotine products considerably more expensive across Germany. Approved by the parliamentary Finance Committee, the coalition proposal covers traditional cigarettes, fine-cut tobacco, shisha tobacco, heated products, and e-cigarettes to help close federal budget deficits.
Projected Price Increases Through 2030
The approved schedule will raise the cost of daily smoking habits. For an individual smoking one pack per day, the 2027 price increase represents roughly €380 in additional annual expenses, expanding to an extra €1,360 annually by 2030.
| Year | Avg. 20-Pack Price | E-Liquid Tax (per ml) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | €8.05 | €0.32 |
| 2027 | €9.10 | €0.38 |
| 2030 | €11.78 | €0.44 |
Vapers face similar increases. With value-added tax included, a 10-milliliter bottle of e-liquid will cost about €1.43 more. The Alliance for Tobacco-Free Enjoyment (BfTG) expects retail prices to rise from current averages of €12 to nearly €15.
Revenue Targets Versus Black Market Risks
The federal government expects the tax increase to yield €1.5 billion in 2027, scaling up to €4.5 billion in 2030. However, an analysis commissioned by tobacco association BVTE and Philip Morris projects lower returns of €5.5 billion between 2027 and 2030, arguing that steep price jumps will push consumers toward untaxed black markets or neighboring foreign jurisdictions.
Health specialists view the price hike differently. During a parliamentary hearing, Katrin Schaller of the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) stated that tangible price increases remain one of the most effective tools to prevent tobacco initiation, particularly among adolescents. Health economist Tobias Effertz from the University of Hamburg highlighted that reduced consumption relieves long-term pressure on the public healthcare system.
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